ASX · Daily Letter 2026-07-17

Read these (2)

Today's announcements worth minutes, not seconds — triaged by deterministic rules (a raise, a result into live flow, quantified materiality). The LLM annotates; it never picks the bucket.

NUZ — HEALEY Enrolment Complete - Topline Accelerated to Q2 CY27

NUZ has completed enrolment of 250 ALS patients in Regimen I of the HEALEY platform trial ahead of schedule, enabling acceleration of topline efficacy/safety readout to late Q2 2027—a material de-risking milestone that removes execution risk from the lead program. The rapid recruitment (fastest in the platform trial history) and earlier data readout represent a significant value inflection point for this $51m market-cap clinical-stage company.

💰 Enrolment completion: 250 participants in <5 months · Regimen I speed: Fastest site activation and enrolment in HEALEY ALS Platform Trial · Topline results timing: Accelerated to late Q2 CY2027 · Treatment phase: 36-week randomised controlled trial now underway

Materiality: Enrolment completion + acceleration of topline by ~6 months materially de-risks execution risk on lead late-stage program; timing pullforward to late Q2 2027 is a material near-term catalyst for a $51m company with limited operational diversification

Priced in? Stock flat to slightly down (-3% over 20d, -3% over 5d); no evident run-up into announcement, suggesting market had not fully priced in the accelerated timeline

🌱 COILED · RSI 58 · 5d -3.1%confidence: high

high-confidence read, materiality quantified

SPL — Entitlement Offer Booklet

SPL is executing an entitlement offer to bolster cash reserves from a modest $11m base, likely to fund near-term clinical or operational needs. The minimal pre-announcement move suggests limited market anticipation of funding requirements.

💰 Market cap: $299m · Cash on hand: $11.0m · 20-day pre-announcement move: +2%

Materiality: Offer size not disclosed in headline; insufficient data to quantify against $299m market cap.

Priced in? No material run-up observed (20d +2%, 5d flat); announcement appears to be new information.

🌱 COILED · RSI 55 · 5d +0.0%confidence: low

capital raise — funding / dilution event

Also worth a skim (3)

Price-sensitive but routine — quarterlies and updates worth a headline-level pass.

CRR — Mavis Lake Geochemistry Prioritises Northern Drill Targets · quantified but moderate — skim
ECL — Return of Capital - ECL · price-sensitive — skim
RML — Resolution Receives Second White House FAST-41 Status · price-sensitive — skim

Broker tape — caveats

Who bought and sold, by broker cohort, on a T+3 lag — spikes vs each stock's own baseline, multi-session streaks, and warnings where 'buying' is likely someone absorbing an exit.

Institutional flow spikes (2026-07-13)

MGU Flow surge (≥5× baseline) 23.8× · $0.1M today
VMM Flow surge (≥5× baseline) 11.5× · $1.4M today
LTR Flow surge (≥5× baseline) 10.9× · $3.2M today
FMG Flow spike (≥2.5× baseline) 4.5× · $9.5M today
CBE Flow spike (≥2.5× baseline) 3.6× · $0.3M today
SLM Flow spike (≥2.5× baseline) 3.3× · $0.1M today

Multi-session buy streaks ≥3 (top 15 of 25)

CBA 31d · FMG 25d · PLS 25d · CXO 22d · KAR 22d · LIN 21d · APX 20d · LTR 20d · 4DX 18d · LYC 17d · LRV 16d · DRO 15d · MSB 15d · VMM 15d · WC8 13d

Pattern tracker

The pre-registered quiet pattern, tallied out-of-sample since 2026-07-03 — every hit counted in public, wins and losses. Small n, on purpose.

Pre-registered quiet-accumulation pattern (Res + NIB both net-buying, vol ≥2×, no announcement), tracked out-of-sample since 2026-07-03.

0

new today

2

resolved

50%

win rate

n=2, median 5d +4.5%. Out-of-sample receipt only — not a backtest.

full track record →