Demotion: Tier 1 steps down from flagship framing

MRdata · restatement · 2026-08-14

From today the site's centre of gravity is the registered quiet-accumulation pattern — the pre-registered rule with the live out-of-sample receipt. Tier 1 ("confluence + catalyst"), which this site previously framed as the flagship, steps down. Not silently: here is the measurement that drove it.

The numbers (current export, corrected universe)

• Tier 1 first fires: 36.8% win · median 0.0% · n=95
• All fires: 38.5% win · median −0.6% · n=200
• Corrected universe baseline: 31.1% win · median −3.2% · n=6,066

That is a real, measured edge — first fires beat the baseline on both win rate and median, and the track record's edge sentence is recomputed at every export precisely so claims like this can't go stale. But it is a modest edge with a flat median: the typical Tier 1 fire goes nowhere. A tier whose median outcome is zero should not be the first thing a reader sees framed as the product.

What changes, and what doesn't

• /radar now leads with the registered rule's receipt — hits, resolved outcomes, and (once enough resolve) win and median, above the exploration surface, never beneath it.
• /news is a pure interpretation feed — no tier framing at all.
• Tier 1 and every other tier keep being measured on the track record, indefinitely. Nothing is deleted, nothing stops being scored. If Tier 1's numbers strengthen, the recomputed edge sentence will say so before any human does.

The full measurement history behind this — 8,000+ forward returns on the system's own output — is in research note 01. Demotion is what the honesty layer is for: the framing follows the measurement, not the other way round.