The method, measured

Philosophy

Reading the ASX before the market reacts.

Everything's algorithmic. The more AI enters the market, the more patterns it leaves behind. I use LLMs to read mass amounts of data — announcements, volume, broker flow — and interpret it before it shows up in price.

How to read the letter — 60 seconds

The pipeline in one diagram

The exact feeds stay private — the edge is in the interpretation, not the source.

Glossary

RSI

Relative Strength Index compares recent up-days to down-days over 14 sessions. Low values (<40) mean the stock has been persistently sold; high values (>70) mean it has run hard. It describes where price has been, not where it's going — oversold stocks can keep falling for a long time.

Volume ×ADV

2× means twice the typical day's turnover. Unusual volume says someone is doing something — it never says who, or which direction. High volume at a low price is just as often an exit finding its buyer as an entry.

Price-sensitive announcement

The exchange requires companies to flag announcements that could affect price — drill results, raises, contracts. The flag is set by the company and the rules, not by importance: routine quarterlies carry it, and genuinely material detail sometimes hides in unflagged filings.

Priced in?

A one-line read of the pre-announcement run-up: a stock up 40% into a halt has often already paid for the news that follows — a heuristic, not a rule. Computed from 5- and 20-day returns into the announcement date. It's an inference from price, not knowledge of who knew what — quiet run-ups also happen by coincidence.

Materiality

A $2.7m asset sale is transformative for a $5m shell and a rounding error for a $70m company, so we quantify against market cap, cash and float where the numbers exist. Where they don't, it says 'insufficient data' rather than guessing. The line is written by an LLM from the filing — it sizes the announcement, it does not verify it.

Free float

We estimate float as shares on issue minus the Top-20 register (founders, cornerstones, escrow). A tightly-held explorer with 30% float moves on a fraction of the money a liquid name needs, so flow is normalised by float where we have a confident register read. Register data is disclosed sporadically — estimates go stale between filings. Where we don't have a confident register read, we don't use it — no estimate beats a bad denominator.

Quiet pattern

The pre-registered setup: resource specialists AND investment banks both net-buying the same day, volume ≥2× average, and no price-sensitive announcement in the prior 7 days. The silence is the point — volume at the lows after news has historically been distribution; before news, accumulation. Found by exploring the data (11 hits, membership frozen before pre-registration), which is exactly why it's tracked out-of-sample in public.

Momentum states

COILED (flat base, RSI 40–60; no recent directional move) · BREAKOUT (pushing highs with trend) · UPTREND / PULLBACK / DOWNTREND (as named) · EXTENDED (RSI ≥70 or +25% in 5 days — has risen sharply in recent sessions) · NEUTRAL / NO_DATA. Derived purely from past prices; a state describes what has already happened, it doesn't predict what comes next.

Flow surge / spike / reversal

Today's institutional net dollars against the same stock's trailing 5-session baseline: a flow spike is ≥2.5× baseline, a flow surge ≥5×, and a flow reversal means a net seller flipped to buyer. These measure acceleration, not size — and a big print can be one fund absorbing another's exit, which reads as 'buying' while meaning the opposite; the exit-absorption warnings alongside the tape flag when that is likely.

Win rate / median forward return

Every flagged name-day is stamped with its forward return at 1, 5, 10 and 20 sessions as those windows mature. Win rate is the fraction above zero; the median is the middle outcome, which one +42% winner can't drag around the way an average can. Both are only meaningful against the watchlist baseline (which was falling over the measured window), and n matters most: a 3-of-4 win rate is an anecdote.

Episode (14-day dedupe)

Flags recur daily while a condition persists, which silently multiplies the same trade in the stats. Where marked, we dedupe to one episode per ticker per 14 days. The window is a judgment call — a slow accumulation over five weeks still counts two or three times.

Pre-registration / out-of-sample

Anything found by exploring past data is suspect — toggle enough filters and something always shines. So the quiet pattern's exact definition was frozen on 2026-07-03 and every qualifying hit since is tallied publicly, wins and losses alike. Out-of-sample results are the only numbers here that can't have been curated; the cost is that n grows slowly.

Logged

A radar appearance whose 5-session forward return has been measured and moved to the track record. Names leave the radar when they log — the radar shows open questions, the track record keeps the answers. Flow data runs ~3 sessions behind, so a hit often arrives already part-way through its window.

5d price

Price change over the trailing 5 trading sessions, computed from the most recent price snapshot — the 'prices' as-of date in the page header. Trailing, not forward: it says what the stock just did, unlike the forward returns on the track record, which are measured from a flagged day onward.